Wednesday, May 29, 2013
The myth of currency wars.
"‘Currency war’ is a complete misnomer. What we are talking about is global monetary easing."
"The problem is that many commentators, journalists, economists and policy makers think that exchange rate movements in some way are a zero sum game."
"Monetary easing is not a zero sum game – in fact in an quasi-deflationary world with below trend-growth a currency war is in fact a race to save the world."
"In my view most people fail to understand the monetary aspects of currency moves – both within a floating exchange rate regime and with managed or pegged exchange regimes."
"So to conclude, the most important channels of exchange rate policy is monetary – the velocity effect and the money supply – the competitiveness effect is nearly as irrelevant as interest rates is."
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Monetary Policy.
"I think that at the core of the problem is that people have a very hard
time figuring out what monetary policy is. Most people – including I
believe most central bankers – think that credit policy is monetary
policy. Just take the Federal Reserve’s attempt to distort relative
prices in the financial markets in connection with QE2 or the ECB’s OMT
program where the purpose is to support the price of government bonds
in certain South European countries without increasing the euro
zone money base. Hence, the primary purpose of these policies is not to
increase nominal GDP or stabilise NGDP growth, but rather to change
market prices. That is not monetary policy. That is credit policy and worse – it is in fact bailouts."
Source.
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Terence Tao.
"I vividly recall one of my first meetings with Terry when, in my
capacity as President of SAAGTC, I was informally assessing his
mathematical ability for placement in SAAGTC programs. At just under 4,
he was multiplying 2-digit numbers by 2-digit numbers in his head
while I, the 'tester', required pen and paper to check his answers!
Another image springs to mind of Terry, one month before his 5th
birthday, working with a group of gifted 7- to 9-year-olds at an SAAGTC
math workshop. The teacher challenged the students to find the next four
numbers in the sequence 9182736. Terry thought briefly and responded,
"4554." He was, of course, correct. The number sequence consists of
consecutive multiples of 9."
Source.
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Monday, May 6, 2013
On China.
"Now while I disagree with a lot of what you wrote, I do agree with
you on one thing, the Chinese people has not found solid footing in a
modern world yet. People are still adapting, evolving to new
lifestyles. Their goals and aspirations will probably also keep
evolving. I do believe the Chinese as a people are too materialistic –
but that’s me speaking making an American wage talking about someone
making on average 1/10 my wave. Many complain of this Chinese
materialism, but it’s probably more about pragmatism. In Taiwan,
parents often want to know how much their children are making, marriages
are often based on wealth… Sounds materialistic. But I believe this is
true of American society too, except it’s taboo to talk about those
things too openly. People in developed societies don’t want to be seen
as too materialist, but if you are pragmatic, you often are.
Truth to be told, the average concern of everyone in the U.S. is
about money. That’s the bottom line. You may find some European
nations where citizens may be less – but that’s because the state
provides a lot of welfare. Are people unethical to care about money
when it’s practical to do so? I would be happy not making any money and
pursue music and writing and inventing things here and full time …
except I have to care about money, or else my family can’t survive.
Perhaps someone from a utopian future where no one ever has to work for a
living would look down on my despicable little life with my narrow
myopic focus on money. But would that contempt be morally justified?
Would such contempt say more about me or them?"
~ a comment from Allen
Sunday, May 5, 2013
A Story.
There Was This Cashier
She moved from the countryside to go to a university in Tokyo. She
joined many extra-curricular activities but always got turned off
quickly . One after another, she jumped from club to club looking for
something better.
When it came time for her to find work, she got a job with a
manufacturing company, but she couldn’t continue working there. Three
months after starting she felt she couldn’t see eye to eye with her
boss. It didn’t take long for her to quit.
The next job she got was for a distribution company. She worked there
for six months but came to realize the job was different than she had
hoped it to be. Shortly after, she quit.
From there she joined up with a company that manages medical statistics and information, but this too didn’t do it for her.
This job just isn’t for me.
As this pattern went on and on her resume
became an ever-growing list of companies that failed to live up to what
she expected from a job. The longer her resume got the more difficult
it became for her to get a job, until finally it was impossible to find
an employer willing to take a chance on someone unwilling to commit to
any job. However, if she couldn’t work then she couldn’t live.
Her parents suggested she move back in with them, but she couldn’t slink back home like a dog with its tail between its legs.
She signed up with a temp agency, but she couldn’t even get through
temporary work. Wherever she went, she would quit if she had the
slightest problem. Her record of former employees grew faster with each
temporary job she dropped.
One day, she received a new job offer through the temp agency. It was
sent to all of the agency’s workers who were a flight-risk like her.
The offer was working the checkout at a supermarket.
In these days supermarkets didn’t use bar codes. The cashiers had to
type in the prices for all the items by hand. It took a bit of training,
but after a week she had already gotten tired of typing into the
register.
This is way too easy. I can’t keep doing this.
This time though, when she got that feeling she realized that she had
already changed work a lot in her life. She had grown to dislike
herself for not having the patience to hold a steady job. She had to
continue working here.
Hang in there. This is your last chance.
However, as much as she tried, she couldn’t continue. She made up her mind to resign. Soon after, she received a phone call.
“It’s time for you to come home,” her mother said.
Hearing the warmth in her mother’s invitation through the receiver,
she made her choice. She began to pack her belongings to return home.
After that she would tell the supermarket she quit.
She had accumulated a lot of things in her long time in Tokyo. While
putting her stuff into a cardboard box she found a notebook in the
drawer of her desk. It was her diary from when she was a young. She used
to always write in it. She remembered looking for it a while ago but
thought it was gone for good.
Flipping through the pages she saw written: “I want to become a pianist.” It was her high school dream.
Back then I used to practice every day to become a pianist.
For some reason practicing piano was the one thing she could continue
doing. Still, somehow, without her noticing, she had given it up. She
compared those days of chasing her dream to her life now, and she became
disgusted with herself.
What happened to the me that used to have hopes and dreams?
Her adult diary had become nothing but a long list of discarded
employers. Rather than recording her dreams she was carrying a record of
her half-hearted attempts and failures. She knew things weren’t going
well but she didn’t realize how low she had sunk until then.
Look at me now, I’m running away from a stupid cashier job.
So she closed her diary and went to call her mother. “I’m going to
stay here a little longer,” she said choking back the tears. She put
aside her resignation and decided to go to work the next day forcing
herself to be happy punching boring numbers into that boring register.
Just a few more days will be good enough to know for sure if I want to continue.
Doubt and excuses would sometimes slip into her thoughts.
When I studied piano, I would make mistakes again and again, but I
kept at it until my fingers memorized the keys. After enough time, I
could play the piano without looking at my hands.
Remembering those days she set a goal for herself.
Alright, I’m going to master that register like I did the Piano.
Alright, I’m going to master that register like I did the Piano.
She studied the button combinations to hit for every item the
supermarket sells. She committed the arrangement of the keys on the
register to memory. Then she practiced.
After a few days she could type fast. Then she didn’t have to look at
the register any more. Her attention began shifting to the customers.
Oh, that customer came yesterday too…
Her hand typed in the price of a dozen eggs by itself.
…only this time she brought her kids.
She could see a lot from her post now. It became her secret pleasure.
Her fingers would dance across the register like a professional
pianist’s would. As her eyes studied the people she began to notice more
and more details about them.
Here’s Ms. Only-Buys-Things-On-Sale.
Well, if it isn’t Mr. Comes-Just-Before-Closing-Time.
Here comes The Honorable Lady Buys-Expensive-Stuff.
One day, ol’ Mrs. Buys-Things-Just-Before-Their-Expiration-Date came
to her register, only this time carrying a fresh and expensive fish.
“What’s the special occasion?” she blurted out to the old lady in surprise.
Mrs. Buys-Things replied, “My grandson won an award for his swimming, we’re going to celebrate. It’s a nice fish isn’t it?”
“Yes, congratulations” she said, unaware she was gently smiling to
Mrs. Buys-Things. This is when she found the pleasure of communicating
with her customers.
After a while she had memorized all the customers’ faces and picked
up some of their names. She started to help them with their shopping.
“Hi Mrs. Tanaka, you’re sure you want to buy this chocolate? We have
some cheaper stuff over in aisle three today.” she said. “Also, you’d be
better off buying chicken rather than fish today.”
And all the customers in her line appreciated it, thanking her as
they went to rethink their choices.
The more she interacted with the
customers the more she enjoyed going to work at the supermarket.
One day, she had a feeling that it was busier than usual, but she
kept to her work and enjoyed talking with all the customers who came
through.
The manager came over the intercom; “We apologize for the crowds. Could customers please move over to the empty registers?”
A little later the speaker repeated, “Again, we ask you to please move to the empty registers.”
After a third announcement she looked up. As her hand typed in the
price of three tomatoes she could see five other cashiers waiting by
empty registers but all of the customers had formed a long line to hers
only.
The manager rushed onto the floor and said to the customers, “Please,
if you would just go to another register, you won’t have to wait.”
“Oh go away,” said Mrs. Ito who only buys milk in glass bottles, “the
only reason I come to this supermarket is to chat with this young lady.
I don’t want another cashier.”
Upon hearing that, she broke into tears.
Mrs. Ito continued “The other supermarket up the street is cheaper
than here, but I come to talk, so if you’d be so kind, I’ll just wait
here.”
At this point, she was crying so hard she couldn’t work the register.
For the first time, she saw how terrific a job could make her feel.
It wasn’t long before she got promoted to checkout manager.
Now she continues to teach new cashiers the joys that are returned to
you by putting care and enjoyment into your work and customers.
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